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Talkhi, Nasrin, Akbari sharak, Nooshin, Pasdar, Zahra, Salari, Maryam, Sadati, Seyed Masoud, Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi. (1401). Potential Pathological, Clinical, and Symptomatic Findings of COVID-19 to Predict Mortality in Positive PCR Individuals Using Data Mining. , 11(1), 13-21. doi: 10.22038/psj.2023.70741.1390
Nasrin Talkhi; Nooshin Akbari sharak; Zahra Pasdar; Maryam Salari; Seyed Masoud Sadati; Mohammad Taghi Shakeri. "Potential Pathological, Clinical, and Symptomatic Findings of COVID-19 to Predict Mortality in Positive PCR Individuals Using Data Mining". , 11, 1, 1401, 13-21. doi: 10.22038/psj.2023.70741.1390
Talkhi, Nasrin, Akbari sharak, Nooshin, Pasdar, Zahra, Salari, Maryam, Sadati, Seyed Masoud, Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi. (1401). 'Potential Pathological, Clinical, and Symptomatic Findings of COVID-19 to Predict Mortality in Positive PCR Individuals Using Data Mining', , 11(1), pp. 13-21. doi: 10.22038/psj.2023.70741.1390
Talkhi, Nasrin, Akbari sharak, Nooshin, Pasdar, Zahra, Salari, Maryam, Sadati, Seyed Masoud, Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi. Potential Pathological, Clinical, and Symptomatic Findings of COVID-19 to Predict Mortality in Positive PCR Individuals Using Data Mining. , 1401; 11(1): 13-21. doi: 10.22038/psj.2023.70741.1390

Potential Pathological, Clinical, and Symptomatic Findings of COVID-19 to Predict Mortality in Positive PCR Individuals Using Data Mining

Journal of Patient Safety & Quality Improvement
مقاله 2، دوره 11، شماره 1، فروردین 2023، صفحه 13-21    اصل مقاله (1.1 M)
نوع مقاله: Original Article
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22038/psj.2023.70741.1390
نویسندگان
Nasrin Talkhi1؛ Nooshin Akbari sharak1؛ Zahra Pasdar2؛ Maryam Salari3؛ Seyed Masoud Sadati4؛ Mohammad Taghi Shakeri* 5
1Department of Biostatistics, School of Health, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
2Institute of Applied Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen.
3Assistant Professor in Biostatistics, Expert Management and Information Technology, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
4Center of Statistics and Information Technology Management, Imam Reza Hospital, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
5Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
چکیده
Introduction:
COVID-19 has placed immense burdens on healthcare systems and medical staff. To avoid spread, the statistician’s role and the use of appropriate predictive models -prediction of survivors versus non-survivors- is highly relevant. This study aimed to apply a model which avoids overfitting and selection bias towards selecting predictors to predict COVID-19 mortality.
 
Materials and Methods:
The Conditional Inference Tree (CIT) model was used. Data from 59,564 hospitalized individuals with positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results were collected from February 20, 2020, to September 12, 2021, in the Khorasan Razavi province, Iran.
 
Results:
The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 88.7% and 88.1%, respectively, the accuracy was 88.2%, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 73.0% on test data. Therefore, the model had considerable accuracy in prediction. The potential predictors involved in predicting survivors versus non-survivors were intubation, age, PO2 level, decreased consciousness level, presence of distress, anorexia, drug use, and kidney diseases.
 
Conclusion:
According to the findings, the CIT model showed high accuracy by avoiding overfitting and selection bias toward selecting predictors. Thus, the results of this study and the efforts of healthcare systems to stop the spread of this pandemic prove helpful.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Conditional Inference Tree؛ COVID-19؛ Data Mining؛ Decision Trees؛ Machine Learning
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